The global advanced optics market will reach $477.42 billion by 2028, fueled by adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), rising demand for photonics-enabled products in such areas as augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), and increasing research and development investments, according to Fortune Business Insights. After attending Optica’s Advanced Manufacturing Summit in May, I would say these predictions may be surpassed by the reality of today’s landscape.
The metaverse’s contribution
We are only at the start of a surge in investment in key consumer electronics and smartphones. For instance, Apple, Samsung Electronics, and Huawei all view the metaverse as a natural extension of the smartphone. Meta, Sony, Google, and Microsoft are dropping billions into the development of AR/VR technologies.
These companies don’t just analyze market trends, they drive them. While the market size for AR today may be only a few million pieces, this scale will increase exponentially as product development at these organizations identifies increasingly efficient and effective ways to produce them for the consumer space. We can expect to see these efforts achieve and perhaps surpass the predicted 62 million headsets that will be on the market within just four years.
But if the production of optical elements such as reflective, diffractive, or holographic optics does not scale much faster, we won’t be able to achieve these numbers.
Standardization challenges
Lack of standardization is perhaps the main challenge facing this part of photonics. It is not easy for the camera, phone, or display manufacturers to compare specifications, produce optimal volumes, and ramp up time to market.
And their issues continue to climb as the supply chain for optical elements grows in complexity. Supply chain constraints stem from three main challenges:
1.Today’s competitive landscape. Some suppliers keep material details as proprietary secrets. While this is understandable, it causes splintering in the market and confusion for buyers about how products differ.
2. Diversification of specifications by supplier. Large buyers can’t put all of their proverbial eggs in one basket, so they work with a number of different suppliers. And material suppliers offer a wide range of materials with amazing specifications, but they don’t offer directly comparable products. This creates challenges for product consistency, particularly for large buyers.
3. Metrology. AR goggles require slanted gratings, which has become one of the fastest growing markets in optics today. Although production continues to climb, there is no standard method to measure slanted gratings. Some companies use atomic force microscopy (AFM) or ellipsometry, but neither of these are optimal. How can customers compare structures or provide data to the volume production fabs if they can’t even access standardized metrology?
If the industry could solve even one of these issues, it would be well on its way to increasing volumes and production in an effective, efficient manner. And standardization is the key.
A global alliance
With that in mind, the main takeaway from the Advanced Manufacturing Summit is that we all need to work closer together. The industry is seeking a group to help facilitate the dialogue around the most efficient and cost-effective means of expanding advanced manufacturing solutions. Optica has already planned its next Advanced Manufacturing Summit—to be hosted by SUSS MicroOptics in Neuchatel, Switzerland in 2024—but with such a rapidly progressing environment, we need to collaborate now to respond to market demands.
As an industry convener, Optica is considering establishing an Advanced Optics Manufacturing Alliance to assemble market leaders, introduce standardization, and determine a consistent path forward. This group would address the challenges outlined above and any emerging issues that stand in the way of progress. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats, and by putting competition aside and collaborating, we focus on a common goal—standardization—to the benefit of all. Together, we are stronger.
What do you think? Should Optica convene an Advanced Optics Manufacturing Alliance? Reach out to me at [email protected] and let me know if this is something you’d support. I’m looking forward to your feedback.